Turkey’s Kurds might hold the key to Erdogan’s political future

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In recent news, Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party, the HDP, is emerging as a kingmaker in the upcoming elections. This is a significant setback for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as the HDP’s decision not to field a presidential candidate allows its supporters to vote for Erdogan’s main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who represents the six-party Nation Alliance opposition bloc. Analysts believe that the HDP’s influence may just tip the balance and unseat Erdogan, who has been ruling for two decades.
The HDP’s decision not to field a candidate came after Kilicdaroglu, during his visit to the party’s co-chairs, emphasized that the solution to Turkey’s problems lies in parliament, including the Kurdish problem. Although it is unclear whether the HDP will officially endorse Kilicdaroglu, experts believe that the party is the kingmaker in the elections.
Erdogan has been cracking down on the HDP due to the threat it poses to his political power and its representation of Turkey’s Kurds. Despite initially courting the Kurds and working with the HDP on a peace process, Erdogan’s ties with the party turned sour, leading to a sweeping crackdown on the party and its affiliates.
The HDP’s influence became apparent after the 2015 election when it denied Erdogan’s AK Party a majority for the first time. However, Erdogan called for a snap election, which led to a drop in the HDP’s support and the restoration of the AK Party’s majority.
The accusations against the HDP, including suspected ties to the PKK, have created a precarious situation for the party. It faces a case in Turkey’s Constitutional Court and may be banned at any moment. To navigate this situation, its candidates are running under the Green Left Party in parliament. The AK Party may use its influence in the media to discredit the opposition if it is seen as aligning with the HDP.
Despite the challenges, the HDP understands its key role in the outcome of the elections. It aims to play the game wisely and avoid a polarized political climate. The party was founded with the goal of peacefully resolving the Kurdish conflict and is aware of its responsibility towards Turkey’s minorities.