The future of Erdogan’s political career hinges on the decisions of Turkey’s Kurdish population

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In the upcoming election in Turkey, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) has emerged as a kingmaker, playing a decisive role that may unseat the two-decade ruler, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This twist of irony comes after Erdogan cracked down on the HDP due to its threat to his voter base. Despite facing persecution, the HDP’s influence may determine the course of Turkey’s politics.

The HDP’s decision not to field a presidential candidate allows its supporters to vote for Erdogan’s main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. This move positions the HDP as the kingmaker in the elections. As the biggest minority in Turkey, the Kurdish population’s votes carry significant weight, and the HDP receives about half of their votes.

The HDP’s complicated relationship with Erdogan began with his initial support for the Kurds, followed by a breakdown in ties and a subsequent crackdown on the party. Accusations of colluding with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) have put the HDP in a precarious position. However, the HDP understands its key role in shaping Turkey’s future and is navigating the elections strategically to avoid polarized discourse.

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