China Vows to Strongly Respond to Taiwan Leader’s US Visit, With Greater Stakes at Risk
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In recent news, there is an anticipated meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California. This meeting has sparked concerns of a repeat of the pressure campaign China launched last year when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei. China encircled the island and cut off contact with the United States. This time, Beijing has already threatened to “resolutely fight back” if the Tsai-McCarthy meeting proceeds.
However, our analysts believe that China may tread more carefully this time, considering the optics of the meeting taking place in California and the timing of the meeting. Any overreaction from China could push them further away from the world. It is crucial for China to consider the consequences of their actions in the current situation.
This meeting comes at a precarious moment in US-China relations, where tensions are flaring over various issues. Taiwan is still feeling the fallout from the response to Pelosi’s visit last year, with Chinese military forces regularly making incursions over the Taiwan Strait. For Tsai, this meeting is significant as it showcases her ability to enhance Taiwan’s visibility and cooperation with the US.
Congress has been a pillar of increasing American support for Taiwan, and lawmakers regularly visit the island to enhance support and cooperation. While the US maintains unofficial ties with Taiwan, it is bound by law to provide the means for Taiwan to defend itself.
This meeting between Tsai and McCarthy in California is less likely to provoke Beijing than a McCarthy visit to Taiwan. The stakes remain high, as a fierce response from China could push voters away from Taiwan’s opposition party and harm a conciliatory message that former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou is trying to send on his tour of mainland China.
China is also aware that its actions towards Taiwan are under a global spotlight, especially following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Beijing has been positioning itself as an agent of peace in the Ukraine conflict, and an aggressive response could overshadow important opportunities to repair ties with Europe.
Ultimately, a less overtly aggressive response from China could imply that they do not wish to escalate tension with the US to a level that can risk getting out of hand. While a reset in US-China ties may not be on the agenda, an easing of tension is possible.
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