China Vows to Respond Strongly to Taiwan Leader’s US Visit, Recognizing Increased Stakes
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In recent news, an anticipated meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has sparked concerns of a repeat of the pressure campaign China launched last year. China’s previous response to a similar visit by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi involved military drills and cutting off contact with the United States. This time, Beijing has already threatened to “resolutely fight back” if the meeting takes place.
However, our experts believe that Beijing may be more cautious this time due to various factors, including the timing of the meeting and the location in California rather than Taiwan. It is crucial for China to avoid overreacting and pushing itself further away from the world stage. This situation presents an opportunity for Beijing to show a more measured response.
The meeting between Tsai and McCarthy holds significant symbolic value for both Taiwan and the US. It highlights the strong ties and cooperation between the two nations, despite the unofficial nature of their relationship. Taiwan’s increased visibility and cooperation with the US have drawn significant attention from China, which claims the island as its own.
As tensions between the US and China continue to rise, Taiwan is caught in the crossfire, facing increased military pressure and growing concerns of a possible invasion. This meeting becomes an important platform for discussing how to support Taiwan and prevent unilateral actions by Beijing. Congress has been instrumental in enhancing American support for Taiwan, and lawmakers are actively working to strengthen ties and cooperation.
While McCarthy may not have a long history of advocating for China-related issues like Pelosi, the meeting with Tsai provides an opportunity for him to demonstrate his commitment to scrutinizing Beijing’s actions. Meeting in California, on US soil, is seen as less likely to provoke Beijing compared to a visit by McCarthy to Taiwan.
The stakes are high for both Taiwan and Beijing in determining their responses. A strong response from Beijing could push voters away from Taiwan’s main opposition party, which is seen as more friendly toward Beijing. It could also disrupt the conciliatory message being sent by former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to mainland China.
Furthermore, Beijing is now under closer scrutiny globally, especially following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin. China’s actions toward Taiwan are seen through the lens of this conflict, and Beijing seeks to position itself as an agent of peace, repairing ties with Europe. This week, as Tsai meets McCarthy, important meetings between European leaders and Chinese President Xi Jinping are also taking place, and Xi may not want to overshadow them with aggressive posturing.
Overall, it is crucial for Beijing to carefully consider its response to the Tsai-McCarthy meeting. A measured and less aggressive approach could ease tensions with the US and avoid escalating the situation further. While a reset in US-China ties may not be on the agenda, a reduction in tension is not beyond the realm of possibility.